Another U-turn by Donald Trump. Just as tensions with Iran seemed on the verge of escalating, the tycoon announced the suspension of Operation Project Freedom. This puts a halt to the mission designed to allow ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which is currently under Iranian control. A truce is being sought.
The dollar has taken a hit and fallen close to its pre-conflict lows, but estimates suggest it is still overvalued by around 20%. The chart below tracks the dollar’s performance since the start of 2026 – note how the currency strengthened during the height of the conflict, and how it fell as tensions eased.
Although gold has suffered a sharp fall, dropping from a high of $5,500 to $4,100 an ounce in just a few weeks, experts remain bullish. The recent falls are reportedly due to rising real interest rates and a stronger dollar, but the easing of tensions between the US and Iran has pushed the precious metal back above $4,700 an ounce. Gold’s potential lies precisely in the weakness of the greenback, which US fiscal deficits will keep under pressure in the medium term. Conversely, uncertainty linked to high energy prices is set to weigh on the price of the safe-haven asset until the Strait of Hormuz is reopened (for further details on the correlation between gold and oil, please refer to our article Gold: what’s happening in the market and how is th conflict affecting the price).
The price of crude oil has plummeted by more than 7% following reports of progress in the negotiations, although investors remain cautious ahead of the upcoming talks. Meanwhile, the fall in oil prices has temporarily allayed fears of a prolonged inflationary shock, leading to a fall in US Treasury yields. This has boosted demand for gold, which does not generate yields.
The chart below shows the performance of the precious metal over the last seven days:
Spot silver is also on the rise, gaining 2.6% to reach $79.31 an ounce thanks to improved global sentiment. The outlook for silver remains bullish, particularly if the price consolidates above $76 an ounce. The next hurdle is breaking through the psychological resistance level of $80 per ounce: a milestone which, if reached, would shift the next target to the highs reached in mid-March ($84.03 per ounce).
Sources:
Repubblica_War: Iran, the US, Israel
